The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has embarked on one of the most ambitious—and risky—IT projects in U.S. government history: migrating the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) legacy systems away from COBOL, a programming language born in the 1950s. Spearheaded by Elon Musk’s lieutenant, Steve Davis, this initiative is set to transform the backbone of Social Security in mere months, raising serious concerns about system stability, benefit payments, and the future of tens of millions of Americans who rely on these services daily.
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The Legacy of COBOL: A Digital Dinosaur Holding Social Security Together
COBOL, short for Common Business-Oriented Language, has been the silent engine behind SSA’s core systems for decades. Created in part by computing pioneer Grace Hopper, COBOL became the standard for business data processing in the 1970s, thanks to the Department of Defense’s push for uniformity.
As of 2016, SSA’s infrastructure still contained over 60 million lines of COBOL code. This code manages everything from issuing Social Security numbers to calculating benefit payments. The fact that these systems haven’t had a substantial update since the 1980s is both a testament to COBOL’s robustness and a ticking time bomb for the agency.
The DOGE Project: A Bold Move with Unprecedented Risks
The DOGE-led migration aims to replace COBOL with more modern languages like Java. But here’s the catch: the project’s timeline is aggressively short, with expectations to complete the migration in just a few months.
Why is this risky?
- System Complexity: The SSA’s core “logic” is deeply intertwined with COBOL. Even minor code changes can cause cascading failures, leading to payment errors or complete system outages.
- Lack of Experience: DOGE has reportedly deployed young, relatively inexperienced engineers to handle this monumental task, raising red flags about the project’s execution quality.
- AI Dependency: To meet the tight deadline, DOGE may rely heavily on generative AI to translate COBOL code. While AI can speed up the process, it’s no substitute for the nuanced understanding of complex legacy systems.
The Fallout: What’s at Stake for Millions of Americans
The consequences of a botched migration could be catastrophic:
- Payment Disruptions: The SSA manages benefits for over 65 million people. Errors could lead to missed payments, overpayments, or even beneficiaries being cut off without notice.
- Invisible Errors: A former SSA technologist warned about the risks of “invisible errors”—issues that aren’t immediately obvious but could cause long-term damage.
- Public Trust: The SSA is already under scrutiny following claims of fraud and administrative cuts, leading to frequent website crashes and long phone wait times. A failed migration could erode public confidence even further.
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The Political Angle: DOGE, Musk, and the SSA Under Fire
The SSA’s struggles have been politicized, especially after Elon Musk publicly criticized the agency under the Trump administration. Musk’s unfounded claims about elderly fraud in the system and the recent push for budget cuts have only intensified scrutiny.
Interestingly, the migration project is linked to DOGE’s broader efforts to “streamline” government operations, including controversial initiatives like the “Are You Alive Project,” aimed at reducing improper payments. However, critics argue that these measures are less about efficiency and more about exerting control over federal systems.
The Uncertain Future: Will This Be a Revolution or a Collapse?
The fate of the SSA’s IT systems hangs in the balance. As the migration looms, insiders fear the worst. “This is an environment held together with bail wire and duct tape,” warned a former senior SSA technologist.
The question isn’t just whether DOGE can pull off this ambitious project—it’s whether they should. The answer could have profound implications for the future of Social Security and the millions of Americans who depend on it.